% References for "When Knowledge Is Cheap, What Is Worth Learning?" (essay 03, version 1.0).
% Every entry is cited in the manuscript. Each source was opened on 2026-10-21 (America/Los_Angeles);
% how each one was checked is recorded in sources.md beside this file (docs/research/when-knowledge-is-cheap/literature.md).
% Keys: author year keyword, lower case. Preprints stay labelled as preprints.

@book{plato1925phaedrus,
  author = {Plato},
  title = {Phaedrus},
  publisher = {Harvard University Press},
  year = {1925},
  note = {Translated by Harold N. Fowler. Plato in Twelve Volumes, vol. 9, Loeb Classical Library; London: William Heinemann. Sections 274e–275b, read in the Perseus Digital Library},
  url = {https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0174%3Atext%3DPhaedrus%3Asection%3D275a}
}

@incollection{simon1971attention,
  author = {Simon, Herbert A.},
  title = {Designing Organizations for an Information-Rich World},
  booktitle = {Computers, Communications, and the Public Interest},
  year = {1971},
  pages = {37--72},
  note = {Edited by Martin Greenberger. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press. The passage on the scarcity of attention is on pp. 40–41}
}

@book{polanyi1966tacit,
  author = {Polanyi, Michael},
  title = {The Tacit Dimension},
  publisher = {Doubleday},
  year = {1966},
  note = {Garden City, NY. Reissued by the University of Chicago Press, 2009. The sentence quoted is on p. 4, chapter 1, “Tacit Knowing”}
}

@book{agrawal2018prediction,
  author = {Agrawal, Ajay and Gans, Joshua and Goldfarb, Avi},
  title = {Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence},
  publisher = {Harvard Business Review Press},
  year = {2018},
  note = {Boston, MA. 250 pp. The chapters “Cheap Changes Everything” and “The Value of Judgment”}
}

@techreport{agrawal2018judgment,
  author = {Agrawal, Ajay K. and Gans, Joshua S. and Goldfarb, Avi},
  title = {Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  year = {2018},
  doi = {10.3386/w24243},
  note = {Working Paper 24243, January 2018. A revised version appears in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda (University of Chicago Press, 2019)}
}

@techreport{autor2014polanyi,
  author = {Autor, David H.},
  title = {Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  year = {2014},
  doi = {10.3386/w20485},
  note = {Working Paper 20485, September 2014}
}

@techreport{autor2024expertise,
  author = {Autor, David},
  title = {Applying {AI} to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs},
  institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
  year = {2024},
  doi = {10.3386/w32140},
  note = {Working Paper 32140, February 2024}
}

@article{deming2017social,
  author = {Deming, David J.},
  title = {The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market},
  journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  volume = {132},
  number = {4},
  pages = {1593--1640},
  year = {2017},
  doi = {10.1093/qje/qjx022}
}

@article{brynjolfsson2022turing,
  author = {Brynjolfsson, Erik},
  title = {The {Turing} Trap: The Promise \& Peril of Human-Like Artificial Intelligence},
  journal = {Daedalus},
  volume = {151},
  number = {2},
  pages = {272--287},
  year = {2022},
  doi = {10.1162/daed_a_01915}
}

@article{recht1988knowledge,
  author = {Recht, Donna R. and Leslie, Lauren},
  title = {Effect of Prior Knowledge on Good and Poor Readers' Memory of Text},
  journal = {Journal of Educational Psychology},
  volume = {80},
  number = {1},
  pages = {16--20},
  year = {1988},
  doi = {10.1037/0022-0663.80.1.16}
}

@article{willingham2006knowledge,
  author = {Willingham, Daniel T.},
  title = {How Knowledge Helps: It Speeds and Strengthens Reading Comprehension, Learning—and Thinking},
  journal = {American Educator},
  volume = {30},
  number = {1},
  year = {2006},
  note = {Spring 2006},
  url = {https://www.aft.org/ae/spring2006/willingham}
}

@article{chase1973chess,
  author = {Chase, William G. and Simon, Herbert A.},
  title = {Perception in Chess},
  journal = {Cognitive Psychology},
  volume = {4},
  number = {1},
  pages = {55--81},
  year = {1973},
  doi = {10.1016/0010-0285(73)90004-2}
}

@article{sparrow2011google,
  author = {Sparrow, Betsy and Liu, Jenny and Wegner, Daniel M.},
  title = {{Google} Effects on Memory: Cognitive Consequences of Having Information at Our Fingertips},
  journal = {Science},
  volume = {333},
  number = {6043},
  pages = {776--778},
  year = {2011},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1207745}
}

@article{camerer2018replicability,
  author = {Camerer, Colin F. and Dreber, Anna and Holzmeister, Felix and others},
  title = {Evaluating the Replicability of Social Science Experiments in {Nature} and {Science} between 2010 and 2015},
  journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  volume = {2},
  number = {9},
  pages = {637--644},
  year = {2018},
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z},
  note = {Twenty-four authors}
}

@article{hesselmann2020google,
  author = {Hesselmann, Guido},
  title = {No Conclusive Evidence That Difficult General Knowledge Questions Cause a “{Google} {Stroop} Effect”. A Replication Study},
  journal = {PeerJ},
  volume = {8},
  year = {2020},
  doi = {10.7717/peerj.10325},
  note = {Article e10325}
}

@article{kahneman2009intuitive,
  author = {Kahneman, Daniel and Klein, Gary},
  title = {Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree},
  journal = {American Psychologist},
  volume = {64},
  number = {6},
  pages = {515--526},
  year = {2009},
  doi = {10.1037/a0016755}
}

@incollection{bjork1994desirable,
  author = {Bjork, Robert A.},
  title = {Memory and Metamemory Considerations in the Training of Human Beings},
  booktitle = {Metacognition: Knowing about Knowing},
  year = {1994},
  pages = {185--205},
  note = {Edited by Janet Metcalfe and Arthur P. Shimamura. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press}
}

@article{ericsson1993practice,
  author = {Ericsson, K. Anders and Krampe, Ralf Th. and Tesch-Römer, Clemens},
  title = {The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance},
  journal = {Psychological Review},
  volume = {100},
  number = {3},
  pages = {363--406},
  year = {1993},
  doi = {10.1037/0033-295X.100.3.363}
}

@article{macnamara2019revisiting,
  author = {Macnamara, Brooke N. and Maitra, Megha},
  title = {The Role of Deliberate Practice in Expert Performance: Revisiting {Ericsson}, {Krampe} \& {Tesch-Römer} (1993)},
  journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
  volume = {6},
  number = {8},
  year = {2019},
  doi = {10.1098/rsos.190327},
  note = {Article 190327}
}

@article{noy2023productivity,
  author = {Noy, Shakked and Zhang, Whitney},
  title = {Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence},
  journal = {Science},
  volume = {381},
  number = {6654},
  pages = {187--192},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.1126/science.adh2586}
}

@article{brynjolfsson2025generative,
  author = {Brynjolfsson, Erik and Li, Danielle and Raymond, Lindsey},
  title = {Generative {AI} at Work},
  journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  volume = {140},
  number = {2},
  pages = {889--942},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1093/qje/qjae044}
}

@misc{peng2023copilot,
  author = {Peng, Sida and Kalliamvakou, Eirini and Cihon, Peter and Demirer, Mert},
  title = {The Impact of {AI} on Developer Productivity: Evidence from {GitHub} {Copilot}},
  howpublished = {arXiv:2302.06590, preprint},
  year = {2023},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.06590},
  note = {Version 1, 13 February 2023}
}

@article{dellacqua2026frontier,
  author = {Dell'Acqua, Fabrizio and {Edward McFowland III} and Mollick, Ethan and Lifshitz, Hila and Kellogg, Katherine C. and Rajendran, Saran and Krayer, Lisa and Candelon, François and Lakhani, Karim R.},
  title = {Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality},
  journal = {Organization Science},
  volume = {37},
  number = {2},
  pages = {403--423},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1287/orsc.2025.21838},
  note = {First circulated as Harvard Business School Working Paper 24-013, September 2023}
}

@misc{metr2025developers,
  author = {Becker, Joel and Rush, Nate and Barnes, Elizabeth and Rein, David},
  title = {Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 {AI} on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity},
  howpublished = {arXiv:2507.09089, preprint},
  year = {2025},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089},
  note = {Version 2, 25 July 2025. Also published by METR as a report on 10 July 2025}
}

@misc{metr2026update,
  author = {Becker, Joel and Rush, Nate and Cunningham, Tom and Rein, David and Mahamud, Khalid},
  title = {We Are Changing Our Developer Productivity Experiment Design},
  howpublished = {METR, blog post},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/},
  note = {24 February 2026. Read 2026-10-21}
}

@article{bastani2025guardrails,
  author = {Bastani, Hamsa and Bastani, Osbert and Sungu, Alp and Ge, Haosen and Kabakcı, Özge and Mariman, Rei},
  title = {Generative {AI} without Guardrails Can Harm Learning: Evidence from High School Mathematics},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {122},
  number = {26},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.2422633122},
  note = {Article e2422633122}
}

@article{kestin2025tutoring,
  author = {Kestin, Gregory and Miller, Kelly and Klales, Anna and Milbourne, Timothy and Ponti, Gregorio},
  title = {{AI} Tutoring Outperforms In-Class Active Learning: An {RCT} Introducing a Novel Research-Based Design in an Authentic Educational Setting},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  volume = {15},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-97652-6},
  note = {Article 17458}
}

@techreport{desimone2025nigeria,
  author = {De Simone, Martín and Tiberti, Federico and Barron Rodriguez, Maria and Manolio, Federico and Mosuro, Wuraola and Dikoru, Eliot Jolomi},
  title = {From Chalkboards to Chatbots: Evaluating the Impact of Generative {AI} on Learning Outcomes in {Nigeria}},
  institution = {World Bank},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1596/1813-9450-11125},
  note = {Policy Research Working Paper 11125, May 2025. The headline numbers are also reported by the authors in a World Bank blog post of 9 January 2025}
}

@misc{shen2026skill,
  author = {Shen, Judy Hanwen and Tamkin, Alex},
  title = {How {AI} Impacts Skill Formation},
  howpublished = {arXiv:2601.20245, preprint},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.20245},
  note = {Version 2, 1 February 2026}
}

@article{fan2025laziness,
  author = {Fan, Yizhou and Tang, Luzhen and Le, Huixiao and Shen, Kejie and Tan, Shufang and Zhao, Yueying and Shen, Yuan and Li, Xinyu and Gašević, Dragan},
  title = {Beware of Metacognitive Laziness: Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Learning Motivation, Processes, and Performance},
  journal = {British Journal of Educational Technology},
  volume = {56},
  number = {2},
  pages = {489--530},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1111/bjet.13544}
}

@misc{otis2025uneven,
  author = {Otis, Nicholas G. and Clarke, Rowan and Delecourt, Solène and Holtz, David and Koning, Rembrand},
  title = {The Uneven Impact of Generative {AI} on Entrepreneurial Performance},
  howpublished = {OSF, preprint},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.31219/osf.io/hdjpk_v3},
  note = {Version 3, 3 October 2025}
}

@inproceedings{lee2025critical,
  author = {Lee, Hao-Ping (Hank) and Sarkar, Advait and Tankelevitch, Lev and Drosos, Ian and Rintel, Sean and Banks, Richard and Wilson, Nicholas},
  title = {The Impact of Generative {AI} on Critical Thinking: Self-Reported Reductions in Cognitive Effort and Confidence Effects from a Survey of Knowledge Workers},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2025 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI '25)},
  year = {2025},
  pages = {1--22},
  doi = {10.1145/3706598.3713778},
  note = {Article 1121. New York: Association for Computing Machinery}
}

@article{gerlich2025offloading,
  author = {Gerlich, Michael},
  title = {{AI} Tools in Society: Impacts on Cognitive Offloading and the Future of Critical Thinking},
  journal = {Societies},
  volume = {15},
  number = {1},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/soc15010006},
  note = {Article 6. A correction to one table was published as Societies 15(9), 252, on 10 September 2025}
}

@misc{kosmyna2025cognitive,
  author = {Kosmyna, Nataliya and Hauptmann, Eugene and Yuan, Ye Tong and Situ, Jessica and Liao, Xian-Hao and Beresnitzky, Ashly Vivian and Braunstein, Iris and Maes, Pattie},
  title = {Your Brain on {ChatGPT}: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt When Using an {AI} Assistant for Essay Writing Task},
  howpublished = {arXiv:2506.08872, preprint},
  year = {2025},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872},
  note = {Version 2, 31 December 2025}
}

@article{fernandes2026wiser,
  author = {Fernandes, Daniela and Villa, Steeven and Nicholls, Salla and Haavisto, Otso and Buschek, Daniel and Schmidt, Albrecht and Kosch, Thomas and Shen, Chenxinran and Welsch, Robin},
  title = {{AI} Makes You Smarter but None the Wiser: The Disconnect between Performance and Metacognition},
  journal = {Computers in Human Behavior},
  volume = {175},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.chb.2025.108779},
  note = {Article 108779. Published online 4 November 2025}
}